In a major turn of events, by far the biggest surprise of 2021 so far is not the situation of Pakistan’s economic downtrend. But, India and Pakistan Director Generals of Military Operation (DGMO) held talks over the hotline to address each other’s core issues and concerns which have the propensity to disturb the peace and lead to violence.
Economic situation, drying up war reserves are the key factors for Pakistan to tow the peace line with India.
Both India Pakistan agreed for strict observance of all agreements, understandings and cease firing along the Line of Control and all other sectors with effect from midnight 24th,25th February 2021. While the initiation of peace between the two nuclear-armed neighbours is a welcome move. But one must not become a scapegoat just for the sake of peace deal drama. If anyone knows the history of Pakistan and the Pakistani military establishment’s backstabbing for a decade will look at this peace initiative with a mega-sized magnifying glass. IFE News Networks made a brief analysis to find the reason behind Pakistan’s Peaceful Neighbour’ mask all of a sudden.
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Reasons behind Pakistan’s urge to make peace with India:
War waging comes at a cost. There are three aspects to it. One, Preparation expense, the Second expense during the conflict and the last post-war situation. Compared to India, oh first let’s have a closer idea about Pakistan’s economic situation without any comparison with India.
Like almost every country around the globe, Pakistan’s economy suffered in 2020. The GDP growth rate for the fiscal year 2019–20 was –0.4 per cent — the first time it fell negative in seven decades. Per capita income fell from US$1625 to US$1325. COVID-19 closures and lockdowns to limit the spread of the virus are also contributing to growing unemployment and poverty. But all is not due to the Pandemic lockdown. Even in 2018-2019, Pakistan’s economy dipped from an all-time high of 5.8% to a mere 1.9 per cent. This must give us a rough idea of Pakistan’s economic growth tragedy.
Pakistan military allocates more funds for paying itself than spending it on reliable weapon platforms. Pakistan military leadership’s corrupt and selfish attitude has weakened their forces so much, Pakistan can’t afford to purchase decent proven weapon platforms from Europe or other western countries. Even if counties like Canada or Britain always leaned towards Pakistan’s narrative can’t afford to make a small deal with Pakistan. This means each of these countries will risk losing Indian economic growth and opportunity. Pakistan’s peanut deal offers are not worth it for these countries to cross swords with economic powerhouse India.
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In the end, Pakistan needs some space to breathe and recalibrate Pak military platforms to face the latest Indian weapon technology. India has leapfrogged from being a core user of the Soviet Union era weapons system to a modern weapon system developer. By far India has managed to overwhelm even the Chinese in many segments of warfare. Recently, Russian media hailed the Indian Defence R&D progress after India test-fired the Vertical Launched Short Range Surface to Air missile defence (VL-SRSAM).
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Of which Russia media generously praised India on how far it has come. Achievement of this technology means India has done something that Russia has failed so far in this segment. VLSRSAM was just another missile testing day for India. India continues to impress with the upcoming 160 KM range Astra-2. An air to air beyond visual range inmate to the enemies. Sometimes coined as India’s Meteor Missile. And much much more are taking place and the Indian Armed Forces are equipping themselves with the most advanced western technologies. Top class weapon platforms dwarf both China and Pakistan by at least one or two generations in technology.
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Pakistan can either afford to import ⅞these at the level of India in the cost versus cost battle. Or have enough technological knowledge to make one for themselves. Another issue could be China’s inability to arm Pakistan at the level of western technology flowing into Indian military space.
Pakistani war reserves are drying up due to consistent ceasefire violation:
Pakistan’s economic situation is very bad, so bad that it had to place its National infra as a mortgage for fresh loans. International Financial Organisations has already dictated their terms on how to run the country. After exhausting all other options, Pakistan was finally forced to go back to the IMF.
In 2020 ORF reported that The desperation of Pakistan for the IMF package is also apparent from the fact that the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) programme is only for $6 billion over 39 months. The Pakistanis were at one point talking about nearly double this amount. But given Pakistan’s IMF quota and the loans previously contracted – nearly half of the current package will go into repayment of previous IMF loans.
Fresh loans to repay the unpaid loans? Yes, that’s what Pakistan is up to. In the process, the Pakistani Military established has realised that it can not afford to have constant trading of firing with India. India with enormous resources can drain Pakistan’s war reserves to its last drop. And this all comes at the cost of military modernization and national development.
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One such research suggested that Pakistan continues its spending spree on propaganda internationally just to maintain its image of being a nation that can match India. At least through fake narratives which have no truth or facts to them. Pakistan also sponsored some dreaded terrorist organisations to destabilise Afghanistan and the Indian Union territory of Jammu and Kashmir. In a way, Pakistan has been in a constant undeclared proxy war with both Afghanistan and India.
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While the Afghans are those who made the Superpower like the United States and Russia to pack their bags. On the other hand India with 5 times the size of Pakistan and the country which torn apart Pakistan into two during the 1971 Indo-Pak war. Remember this, Pakistan was considered as a real military match for India with high-end western weapon platforms and a good economy. Today things have gone deep south to a point of no return. In both diplomatically and militarily India has dwarfed Pakistan by miles.
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Should India trust Pakistan’s peace gesture?
The answer is simple, let alone India, even the US must be remembering what happened with the Osama bin Laden debacle. The United States paying billions to the Pakistanis. In return, all they wanted was the trust and dedication to trapping Osama Bin laden. In the end, the United State had to conduct the most dangerous surgical mission to eliminate Osama bin Laden. Who was the most wanted terrorist in the world, But living a king-size life inside Pakistan Army’s military zone. India knows better than what the American learnt.
India has been into multiple wars with Pakistan, all of which was initiated by the Pakistani expansionist agenda. When were Pakistan needs a break, a space to breathe and when it feels the pinch. They come up with these peace initiatives. During this peacetime, the plot for another surprise war and most probably a major terror attack on India in the making.
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Its time for India to act smart, and bleed the enemy with a counter 1000 cuts strategy implemented by Pakistan. By doing the same on them. Maybe when they realise it’s over the real peace might prevail. At least for some few more years before they begin yet another military or proxy campaign into India.
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